Abstract
The Gulf represents a typical sub-region where the national security of all the states of the region are interdependent. Threat travels from one state to another faster and disrupts peace and stability in a short span of time. The conflict underway is the telling evidence. Apart from the regional powers and their aspirations, the region is marked by presence and interests of major global powers making regional security a inexorably complex. Managing security is, therefore, dependent on managing the interests of both regional and global powers. For almost a decade now US, the pre-eminent power in the region was pursuing to create an American order in the region with security alliance of Israel and its Arab allies with Abraham Accords and its expansion as well as bringing Israel to the CENTCOM from EUCOM. The strategic intent behind is to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific and deal with rise of China and the impending challenge which is apparent from its references of China in its latest National Security Strategy. The Iran war is a clear disruption of the US strategy and pursuits in the region and its China strategy. Rather, the war has spurred the Chinese power and credibility in West Asia without actual military engagement and security costs. With the war, the US is adrift from its position of primacy and paving for an ‘Advantage China’ trajectory in the Gulf, Wider West Asia and the emerging multi-polar World.
Keywords: Iran War, Geopolitics, Abraham Accord, Hormuz Strait, West Asia, Multipolar World,
Chinese Position and Diplomatic Pursuits
The Five-Point Peace Initiative by China along with Pakistan (FMPRC 2026 March 31) is the important point to begin with to understand the Chinese position in the conflict. These are Immediate Cessation of hostilities, Start of Peace Talks as soon as possible, Security of nonmilitary targets, Security of Shipping Lanes and Primacy of the United Nations Charter and pointed out that the E3’s attempt to invoke the “snapback” mechanism is legally and procedurally flawed. In the backdrop of the renewed conflict, China therefore urged the members of Security Council to focus on multilateral diplomacy and peaceful solution of the Iran nuclear issue. (UNChina 2026 March 13) The US and Israel attack, without authorization from the Security Council and while negotiations between Iran and the US were underway, is in clear violation of the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. The fundamental reason for the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is the illegal military actions taken by the US and Israel against Iran. China strongly calls on the US and Israel to immediately cease their illegal military actions (UNChina 2026 April 7). At the heart of the Hormuz Strait crisis is the illegal military actions launched by the US and Israel against Iran despite ceasefire arrangement, and imposed targeted blockades by the United States (UNChina 2026 April 27) The Chinese UN ambassador Fu Cong emphasised the centrality of the Palestine issue for peace and security in the region. He made three points in a very emphatically that “Gaza is not a permanent battlefield”. “Settlement activities are unacceptable” and “the two-state solution is non-negotiable”, with “the early establishment of a fully sovereign and independent state of Palestine based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital”. (UNChina 2026 April 28) A very strong position compared to the complete watered-down position of the United States on the issue and evokes favourable sentiments in the region.
Chinese Principled Stand on War, Gulf States and Strait of Hormuz
Wang Yi reiterated China’s principled position that a comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency.China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and appreciates Iran’s willingness to seek a political solution through diplomatic channels. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the international community shares a common concern about restoring normal and safe passage through the strait, and China hopes that the parties involved will promptly respond to the strong call from the international community. On nuclear issue, China appreciates Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and, at the same time, believes that Iran has a legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. China advocates those countries in the Gulf and Middle East should take their destiny into their own hands, encourages Iran and more Gulf countries to engage in dialogue to achieve good-neighborliness and friendship, and supports the establishment of a regional peace and security framework by regional countries that ensures joint participation, safeguards common interests, and achieves common development. (FMPRC 2026 May 6)
President Xi Jinping: Four Propositions
President Xi Jinping made four propositions on safeguarding and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East. (FMPRC 2026 May 14) First, commitment to the principle of peaceful co-existence. The Gulf states as close neighbors must build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region for peaceful co-existence. Second, the principle of national sovereignty must not be violated. The sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states should be respected. Third, commitment to the principle of international rule of law. It is important to firmly uphold the international system with the U.N. at its core, the basic norms governing international relations underpinned by purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter. Fourth, commitment to a balanced approach to development and security as security is a prerequisite for development. China stands ready to share with the Gulf countries the opportunities through Chinese modernization for regional development and security. These four principles demonstrate how China, as a responsible major country, has moved beyond the zero-sum game mindset and with Eastern wisdom and pragmatic action, offered a viable pathway out of geopolitical deadlock.
Iran ‘Five Point Proposal’ are having congruence with the Chinese position. These includes- Ending the war on all fronts in West Asia, including the Israeli war on Lebanon and guarantees of non-aggression, war reparations and compensation for damages, lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian shipping, releasing Iranian assets frozen abroad, and Recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz. (Tehran Times 2026 May 11) The US Response and its Five-Point Proposal which includes- No compensation for war costs or damages, Iran must hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile to the US, Only one Iranian nuclear facility will be allowed to continue operating, No more than 25% of Iran’s frozen assets will be released and A ceasefire must be implemented as a precondition for negotiations. The US response remains untenable as far as the Iranian position is concerned and the resumption of the war is on the horizon. Israel’s position and strategy remains resumption of war in contrast with the Chinese and US Gulf allies. In his interview to the CBS News, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that “I think it (the war on Iran) accomplished a great deal, but it's not over,” He further added ,“There is still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran.” Pressed on how the US and Israel would remove the nuclear material, “You go in, and you take it out.” (CBS 2026 May 10) Trump also has repeatedly threatened to resume the war with Iran if Tehran does not meet his demands.
Unprecedented Shift in the US Domestic Scene over Israel, Iran and the US War Policy
Forty Senators voted to block weapons to Israel. This vote indicates a significant shift in US Senate and perception in which 40 Senators voted Yeas, 59 Nays and one Not Voting on “A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval of the proposed foreign military sale to the Government of Israel of certain defense articles and services.” (Senate 2026 April 15) It represents growing perception of US complicity in Israel policy and actions, a strong message against the US-Israel war on Iran and their opposition to US policy and complicity in Israel policies in Palestine, Lebanon. It suggests that finally, the US Senate is catching up with changing sentiments among Americans particularly the younger generation and the democrats who increasingly want Israel to be accountable for its actions to have credible standing in the region.
Joaquin Castro- Member of Congress, 30 Democrats letter to Secretary Mrco Rubio
A policy of official ambiguity about the nuclear capabilities of one party to this conflict makes coherent nonproliferation policy in the Middle East impossible, for Iran, for Saudi Arabia, and for every other state in the region making decisions based on their perceptions of the capabilities of their neighbors. (Joaquin Castro 2026 May 4) We cannot develop coherent nonproliferation policy for the Middle East, including with respect to Iran's civil nuclear program and Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear ambitions, while maintaining a policy of official silence about the nuclear weapons capabilities of one party central to the ongoing conflict in which the United States is a direct participant. We ask that you hold Israel to the same standard of transparency that the United States expects from any other country that may be pursuing or retaining nuclear weapons capability.
Shifts in the Security Perception among the Regional States, including Israel
There US Gulf allies are concerned that the war would leave a dangerously wounded and hawkish Iran, a grave situation with impending scenario the US draw-down. Saudi Arabia is working on a non-aggression pact of the Middle East States and Iran on the model of 1975 Helsinki Accord by the US, its European countries and Soviet Union and its allies to address security concerns and to ensure necessary cooperation between the rival groups for economic development. The idea has the support of many European countries as a possible pathway to assuage Iran’s security concern and guarantee. (Financial Times 2026 May 14) This growing perception increasingly doubts US stature as a credible security provider in the region which, in turn, automatically spurs China as a credible power. In his interview with CBS News, Netanyahu expressed that in the wake of growing political scrutiny and shifting public opinion about Israel “I want to draw down to zero the American financial support, the financial component of the military cooperation that we have. Because we receive- $3.8 billion a year. And I- think its time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining--military support.” Regarding the timetable for the same he further added that “let’s start now and do it over the next decade, over the next ten years, but I want to start now.”(CBS News 2026 May 10)
Europe, NATO and US strategy in the War on Iran
Britain and France convened an international Summit of Strait of Hormuz. As per the joint statement, an independent and a strictly defensive international would be established “to protect merchant vessels, reassure commercial shipping operators, and conduct mine clearance operations as soon as conditions permits following a sustainable ceasefire agreement”. (Joint Statement 2026 April 17) This is known as “Franco-British Initiative” and is in a complete divergence with the US strategy on Hormuz. The France has made it clear that, war on Iran is not their war. Recently, the French Foreign Minister, M. Jean-Noel Barrot, in a telophonic conversation with his US counterpart, Marco Rubio, has emphasised that France prioritize diplomatic solution to ensure that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons. He stressed the French willingness to take part in efforts for “guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz when conditions allow, in the Franco-British initiative”. (France Diplomatie 2026 March 5)
Trump-Xi Summit: Change in Global Power Equation
President Xi referred the ‘Taiwan Question’ as the most important issue of China-US relations and its stability. “Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy. Taiwan independence and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water. Safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.” (FMPRC 2026 May 14) Such a bold geopolitical messaging is surely a geopolitical hint to Iran’s stand on the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of States said that the Iran war was a “huge source of instability” and “threatens to destabilise Asia more than any other part of the world because it’s heavily reliant on the straits for energy”. He further added “It’s in [China’s] interest to resolve this. We hope to convince them to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they’re doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf,” (FoxNews 2026 May 14) While Trump also said he did not think he needed Xi’s help with Iran and that the US would “win it one way or the other, peacefully or otherwise”. (IndiaToday 2026 May 14) The subsequent Putin’s visit demonstrated a warm celebration of their Strategic Partnership with photo exhibition “China-Russia Everlasting Friendship: A Model of Major-Country Relations” at the Great Hall of the People Republic in Beijing where the two leaders recalled with pleasure the moments of cooperation and friendly exchange between the countries and”marks that the “friendship is in line with the prevailing trend of history and of the times. It is unbreakeable, and continue to steadily advance forward and write new, splendid chapters.” They emphasised it as a new era of progress in “China-Russia good neighbourliness and friendly cooperation.” (FMPRC 2026 May 20)
The Peace proposals and counter proposals along with threats of resuming the war with more force and their postponement have drastically diminished the credibility of the United States as a global power. The combination of ceasefire, naval blockade and the US peace proposals mixed with imprudent threats are making the US policy and strategy focus-less and unreliable. These puts the limits of US power on display and gives way to the rise of Chinese as a power with credibility in the conflict and West Asia.
The United is not able to accept the evolving Multipolar world and necessity to accommodate others unlike its unipolar moments as well as share the power and responsibility for ensuring global peace and prosperity. The Iran war is slowly turning into an inextricable quagmire and ‘Suez Moment’ for the US power and empire. The outcomes of recent Xi-Trump Summit is perceptible indicator and pointing to the geopolitical trajectory.
In Brief
A careful assessment makes it perceptible that the War has emboldened Iran. China and Russia hardening their strategic posture against US and facilitate Iranian war efforts in every sphere possible. Despite being the mediator in the Iran-US negotiations, Pakistan seems to be in secret talk and agreement with Iran as the reports of Iranian planes parked in Nur Khan base during the active phase of the war. Regional Arab allies do not trust the US security guarantees (GCC and Egypt and Turkey) given the scale and volume of damage caused by Iranian missiles and inability of the US security umbrella to ensure their security. Even Israel is trying to be independent of the US financial aid of 3.8 billion for autonomous pursuit of its strategic goals. There is a perceptible divide in the Trump administration and Pentagon assessment of Iran’s remaining capabilities is discouraging and challenging for United States. Military Commanders are talking about depleting ammunition and the state of fund and fatigue of soldiers and war machines. The International Summit on ‘Strait of Hormuz’ and the subsequent ‘Franco-British Initiative’ indicates yawning strategic divergence between US and its NATO allies. The ‘China-Russia Everlasting Friendship: A Model of Major-Country Relations’ during President visit to China immediately after Xi-Trump Summit points to the fact that US is not willing to accept the geopolitical reality of a multi-polar world and need for a multi-lateral approach as the need of the hours. With the war, the US is adrift from its position of primacy and paving for an ‘Advantage China’ trajectory in the Gulf, Wider West Asia and the World large.
References:
CBS News (2026 May 10) “Netanyahu wants Israel to down to zero the American Financial Support” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/netanyahu-us-israel-iran-60-minutes-transcript/
FMPRC 2026 May 20) “President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin Together Attend the Photo Exhibition “China-Russia Everlasting Friendship: A Model of Major-Country Relations” https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202605/t20260521_11914851.html
FMPRC (2026 May 14) “President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump” https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202605/t20260514_11910330.html
FMPRC (2026 May 14) President Xi Jinping Meets With Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, the UAE https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202604/t20260414_11891573.html
FMPRC (2026 May 6) Wang Yi Holds Talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202605/t20260507_11905849.html#:~:text=Wang%20Yi%20Holds%20Talks%20with,the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China&text=On%20May%206%2C%202026%2C%20Member,Seyyed%20Abbas%20Araghchi%20in%20Beijing.
FMPRC (2026 March 31) “Five-Point Initiative of China and Pakistan for restoring Peace and Stability in the Gulf and Middle East Region” https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202603/t20260331_11884511.html
FoxNews (2026 May 14) Marco Rubio Says Trump Will Ask China To Take A ‘More Active Role’ On Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUOvJQapWk0
France Diplomatie 2026 March 5) “United States – Jean-Noel Barrot’s telephone conversation with his American counterpart Marco Rubio” https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/presse-et-ressources/decouvrir-et-informer/actualites/etats-unis-entretien-telephonique-de-jean-noel-barrot-avec-son-homologue-americain-marco-rubio
IndiaToday (2026 May 14) “Patience Running Out Over Strait of Hormuz and Iran Nuclear” https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYYfyV7DAKJ/
Joaquin Castro (2026 May 4) Israel Nuclear Letter by 30 Democrat Congressmen led by Joaquin Castro https://castro.house.gov/imo/media/doc/israel_nuclear_letter.pdf
Joint Statement (2026 April 17) “Joint Statement by President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer, Co-chairs of the International Summit on the Strait of Hormuz: 17 April 2026” https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-president-macron-and-prime-minister-starmer-co-chairs-of-the-international-summit-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-17-april-2026
Financial Times (2026 May 14) “Saudi Arabia floats Middle Eastern Non aggression Pact with Iran” https://www.ft.com/content/ab78e60e-7a41-4943-a1a5-bd60b4ca31b9?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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(UNChina 2026 April 27) Remarks on the Safety and Protection of Waterways in the Maritime Domain by Ambassador Fu Cong at the UN Security Council Open Debate https://un.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/chinaandun/securitycouncil/202604/t20260428_11901374.htm
UNChina 2026 April 7) Explanation of Vote by Ambassador Fu Cong on the UN Security Council Draft Resolution on the Strait of Hormuz https://un.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/chinaandun/securitycouncil/202604/t20260408_11887987.htm
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