Trump proposal of relocating Gaza in Egypt, Jordan or some other countries has shocked the Arab partners of US into an inexorable geopolitical space. Palestinian has already declared that US is not an honest peace maker given its Israel policy and support. US iron-clad friendship during the Gaza war has pushed US in a very difficult position for future peace process. Stable Egypt and Jordan is an essential component of Israel peace and security. Talk of Saudi-Israel normalization in such a scenario diminishes Saudi leadership standing in Arab and Islamic world. The swift Saudi statement of response to Trump proposal is a necessary geopolitical and diplomatic imperative for its leadership in the region and its global aspirations.
Israeli Responses & its Geopolitical Implications
In an interview with Fox News, Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his complete endorsement of the proposal when he said that “This is the first good idea that I’ve heard, it is a remarkable idea. And I think it should be examined, pursued, and done- because I think it will create a different future for everyone.” (Berman & Sokol, 2025 February 6) Statement of Israel Defence Minister, Israel Katz for IDF to prepare a plan for the exit of willing Palestinian is in defiance of Arab sentiments and international opinion. He talked about “special arrangements” via both maritime and aerial routes. “Gaza residents should be allowed the freedom to exit and emigrate, as is the practice anywhere around the world,” he argued. Trump’s plan could advance “rehabilitation plans in a demilitarized Gaza that poses no threat in the post-Hamas era, which will take many years.” (ToI 2025 February 6)
In response to the question in his interview to Israel’s Channel 14 that a Palestine state is precondition of for Saudi normalisation with Israel, Netanyahu said that Saudi Arabia can create a Palestine state in their own country as they have sufficient land. He rejected the idea of a Palestine state outright as a “security threat to Israel”. (Durgahm, Nader 2025 February 7). This makes his dismissal of Palestinians right of self-determination and rejection of a Palestinian state in their homeland. This is in clear contradiction of the Saudi position that a clear pathway towards a Palestinian state is the path to its normalisation with Israel. Such statements are burning the hard-earned geopolitical bridges and might push the Saudis out of zone of potential normalisation, a huge diplomatic setback for Israel.
The Arab partners are hugely dependent on US for their security and survival, will surely not be able to leave the security umbrella right away. But it is also notable that the Palestine is the geopolitical centre of the region and is a matter huge concerns in domestic politics and stability of these countries. The proposal pushed them into an inexorable political, diplomatic and geopolitical state. The US restoration of ‘Maximum Pressure’ policy is bound to upset numerous processes of geopolitical adjustment produced out of US Iran policy for some time. The concerned National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) on 4th February has sanctioned the organization, entity and individuals from UAE, India and China other than Iran, which will have its ramifications. (NSPM-2 2025 February 4)
Relevant Trump’s Presidential Executive Orders & Implications
The Trump 2.0 started with announcements, policies and executive orders that overturned many long-held US stand on Palestine which has been very sensitive to ther countries of the region and security and stability. Lifting sanctions on violent settlers accused of violence in the West Bank against Palestinians and pro-settlement organizations. On day President signed the Executive Order that rolled back the sanction regime imposed by the previous Biden administration (Presidential Action 2025 January 20) Reinstating sanction on ICJ that was lifted by the Biden Administration. The Executive Order reads “that the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as established by the Rome Statute, has engaged in illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and pour close ally Israel and further abused its power by issuing baseless arrest warrants targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Former Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant.” (Executive Order 2026 February 6)
The United Nations Refugee Works and Agency (UNRWA) which has been important for Palestinians and their welfare as well as subject of allegations by Israel and controversies during the conflict underway. The relevant Executive Order in this regard states that some UN agencies has drifted from its designated mission and been acting against the interests of United States and its allies and propagating anti-semitism. “The secretary will inform the UN Secretary General and the leadership of UNRWA and the UN Commissioner for Human Rights that the United States will not fund UNRWA or the UNHRC and that the United States will not satisfy any claims to pay 2025 assessments or prior arrears by these organizations.” Besides, it will review its membership in UNESCO in next 90 days and decide. (Executive Order 2025 February 4)
Deporting foreign nationals in US supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. Re-designating Houthis as foreign terrorist organization which the Biden administration had reversed.“The Houthis’ activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.” (Executive Order 2025 January 22) The Executive Order ‘Addressing egregious Actions of the Republic of south Africa’ refers to its policy stand on Gaza that, “South Africa has taken aggressive positions towards the United States and its allies, including accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide in the International Court of Justice, and reinvigorating its relations with Iran to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements.” (Executive Order 2025 February 7).
The Response of US Arab Partners
The responses of the leaders and countries of the region has been very quick with sharp and outright rejection. However, given the strategic importance and long-awaited normalization with Israel, the Saudi response assumes a particular importance. Reiterating its positions declared earlier, the Saudi Foreign Ministry Statement stressed that, “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia also reaffirms its unequivocal rejection of any infringement on legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, whether through Israeli settlement policies, land annexation or attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their land.” It further “emphasize that this unwavering position is non-negotiable and not subject to compromises”. (Statement 2025 February 5) This surely manifests a firm opposition from the closest ally in the region, an important regional power for US strategic leadership and primacy in the region.
Two summits, the Riyadh Summit and the Cairo Extraordinary Arab Summit on Palestine have been convened under the pressure of the “Gaza riviera” proposal of President Trump. (Schenker & alOmari 2025 February19) In the lead-up to these summits all the Arab leaders have outrightly rejected it which in itself a new politico-diplomatic challenge to the US leadership and primacy in this strategic region. The Cairo Extraordinary Arab Summit in response has witnessed a growing chasm between the US and its Arab partners on the issue of Palestine and Gaza in particular. The Final Statement affirmed “the absolute rejection of any form of displacement of the Palestinian people from their land or within it, under any name, circumstance, justification, or claim.” (Final Statement 2025 March 4)
US Direct talk with Hamas and Israel’s Predicament
There has been a clear US policy of not communicating with any group or organization which has been designated as a terrorist entity. Hamas was designated as a terrorist organization by US way back in 1997. Given delicate strategic scenario at the moment talk of direct talk of US with Hamas has created an untenable scenario. (Ravid, Barak 2025 March 5) The direct talk of Adam Beihler, the US Special envoy for Hostage with Hamas has been a breach of long-held strategy and led to angry reaction from Israel and the Prime Minister’s Strategic Affairs Advisor, Ron Dremer in particular. In his interview to the Kan News, Israel, Adam Beihler said that Hamas would eventually lay down their arms and defended the direct talk very curtly saying that Washington is “not an agent of Israel”. (Roth & Burke 2025 March 10) Such a fissure in Israel and US pursuits is rare and strategically debilitating for the Israel-US relations and strategy in the region.
The Proposal and Concerned US Pursuits Benefits China
As these are unfolding in the wake of Gaza crisis, the Chinese Palestine Policy and its stand throughout of the war is bound to bring the geopolitical and diplomatic dividend. The changing and incoherent statements of the US administration and President’s statements are steadily denting American stature of power and primacy in the region.
But there will be a serious reconsideration of the proposal and will be susceptible to the Chinese long game in the region. In response to the Trump Gaza proposal, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi noted that “Gaza belongs to the Palestinian people. It is an inseparable part of Palestinian territory. Changing its status by forceful means will not bring about peace, but only new chaos. We support the plan for restoring peace in Gaza initiated by Egypt and other Arab countries. China is a strategic partner of Middle East countries and a sincere friend of our Arab brother” he added. (MFA 2025 March 7)
The region has been of utmost strategic significance for China. For its energy security, which is fundamental to its economic development strategy, the region is at the centre of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its grand strategy for global connectivity, trade and geopolitical influence. The Chinese initiatives Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) are creating a new geo-economic and geopolical web with geo-cultural diplomatic pursuits converging in this region. (Wenting 2024 September 28) With the US aim of pivoting away from the region to Indo-Pacific for some time, its primacy is already on the wane which coincides with the Chinese economic engagement, technological cooperation is combining with security and military component fast in the region with defence sale, cooperation and joint naval and military drills. The Djibouti, Duqm and Khalifa port, apart from its engagements in the strategic Iranian islands and ports are at work creating its strategic strings and loops in region.
The digital footprints of China with expanding Huawei network have been deepening in the region. Its Data Storage Innovation Centre for Middle East and Central Asia at Dubai in collaboration with local partners covers over 20 countries. Its innovation centres and platforms facilitate solutions and caters to business requirements of the countries with economic divercification underway. (Huawei 2024 October 16) This cooperation in the digital sphere and data awakening which is central to the future of economic development is creating new synergy of mutual interests and relations. Likewise, the Chinese planemaker, COMAC is building manufacturing hub in Saudi Arabia as a launch pad for its regional and international strategy. A Saudi delegation visited COMAC’s Shanghai facility under its pursuit of Saudi Vision 2030. During recent visit to Riyadh, the COMAC Chairman Dongfeng said that “COMAC envisions enhancing global connectivity and diversity by contributing to Saudi aviation transportation development. COMAC plans to enhance connectivity within a 2,000-km radius, spanning the Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East, Turkey, North Africa and beyond,” he added. (Barrington 2024 May 23) These syndromes are expected to gain momentum with growing differences between the United States and its partners in the region with the untenable Trump proposal.
Alternative seat of Peace Diplomacy for West Asia
The Global Security Initiative (GSI) of China envisions strategic guidance to navigate the security challenge and promote peace ushering in a community with shared responsibility for peace and security. In accordance, China would join the parties, the UN, Global South to mediate and regional architecture for political settlement of hotspots and promote peace and security. (FMPRC 2024 September 15)
The GSI has witnessed a successful outcome in the Iran Saudi Arabia Trilateral, a huge geopolitical move in the troubled West Asian region. It enabled normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Iran with opening of their diplomatic missions with their affirmation of respect for sovereignty and noninterfrence in each other’s internal affairs. (Joint Trilateral 2023 March 10) The developing stages of Iran- Saudi normalization, holds significant potential to strengthen the geopolitical position and influence of China in the region. The Gaza war has witnessed a new global diplomatic state when the delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers led by the Saudi Foreign Minister arrived in Beijing instead of Washington or any other European capitals. China, as then rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council promised promotion for ceasefire, humanitarian efforts and return to the two-state solution in consonance with the relevant resolutions of the General Assembly and the Security Council. (FMPRC 2023 November 20)
The reconciliation meeting of 14 Palestinian groups in Beijing enhanced and elevated geopolitical value of China in the region. The Beijing Dialogue resulted in the Beijing Declaration promising Palestinian unity, a constructive pathway towards Palestine state and the eventual solution of the century old vexing issue. (MFA 2024 July 23)
The recent Beijing Meeting between China, Russia and Iran is another successful edition of diplomacy of the region with global implications which evades the solution and pushing the region into the path of accelerating conflict and impending nuclear catastrophe. “The Beijing Meeting was chaired by Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu of the People’s Republic of China, with participation of Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov Sergey Alexeevich of the Russia Federation and Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The discussion was focussed on the latest state of play with regard to nuclear issue and sanction lifting. The three countries emphasized on the necessity of terminating all unlawful unilateral sanctions.” (FMPRC 2025 March 14) Besides they reiterated for political and diplomatic dialogue based on equality and self-respect as well as addressing of root causes, abanding of sanctions, pressures and threat of force. It further stressed on UNSC Resolution 2231 and diplomatic efforts in that framework. These syndromes are spurring the potential geopolitical gains in the wake of very unpopular Trump Gaza proposal in the region.
A rare Arab Unity on Palestine
The proposal has produced a new sense of regional geopolitical consciousness. The repeated comments and reiteration of the proposal despite outright rejection by the regional countries, the proposal has sparked a rare political unity. The leaders have shown rare coordination for working together to build a unified Arab position by rejecting the proposal. The detailed Cairo plan on Gaza reconstruction without displacement of Palestinians is the manifestation of a new geopolitical trend. This is in contradiction to the US strategy of new order in the region with Arab-Israel unity.
In Brief
The conflict is still underway with an uncertain direction and limits of belligerence. The proposal entails multifarious political consequences and geopolitical implications. The region has been in the process of geopolitical churning and changes in the recent years with increasing great power engagements and competition. It entails potential geopolitical shifts and realignments in the region with global ramifications. The Abraham Accord syndrome is facing derailment and a challenging stage for US geopolitical standing in this strategic region. A prudent political reconsideration of the issue and diplomatic pragmatism is the need of the hour for a lasting peace and security in the region and beyond.
References:
Barrington, Lisa (2024 May 23) “China Planemaker COMAC eyes Saudi Arabia for Global Expansion”, Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-planemaker-comaceyes-saudi-arabia-global-expansion-2024-05-23/
Berman, Lazar & Sokol, Sam (2025 February 6) “PM calls Trump Plan ‘remarkable’; Katz tells IDF to prep for voluntary emigration” Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-calls-trumps-gazaplan-remarkable-katz-tells-idf-to-prep-for-voluntary-emigration/
Durgahm, Nader (2025 February 7) “Netanyahu Suggets Palestinian can have a state in Saudi Arabia”, Middle East Eye https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/netanyahu-suggests-palestinians-can-have-statesaudi-arabia
Executive Order (2025 February 6) “Imposing sanction on the International Criminal Court”, Presidential Action, White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposingsanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court/
Executive Order (2025 February 7) “Addressing Egregious Action the Republic of South Africa” Presidential Action, White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidentialactions/2025/02/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa/
Executive Order (2025 February 4) “Organizations and Reviewing United States Support to All International Organizations” Presidential Action, White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/withdrawing-the-united-states-from-andending-funding-to-certain-united-nations-organizations-and-reviewing-united-states-support-to-allinternational-organizations/
Executive Order (2025 January 22) “Designation of Ansar Allah As a Foreign Terrorist Organization”, Presidential Action, White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidentialactions/2025/01/designation-of-ansar-allah-as-a-foreign-terrorist-organization/
FMPRC (2025 March 14) “Joint Statement of the Beijing Meeting Between China, Russia and Iran”,Foreign Ministry of Peoples Republic of China https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/wjbxw/202503/t20250314_11575903.html
FMPRC (2023 November 20) “Han Zheng Has a Group Meeting with the Delegation of Arab-Islamic Foreign Ministers”, Foreign Ministry of Peoples Republic of China https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/gjhdq_665435/2675_665437/2716_663436/2718_663440/202312/ t20231204_11194160.html
FMPRC (2024 September 15) “Jointly Acting on the Global Security Initiative and Building a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind that Enjoys Universal Security”, Foreign Ministry of Peoples Republic of China https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg_663340/swaqsws_665306/xgxw/202409/t20240915_1149140 6.html
Huawei (2024 October 16) “Huawei Launches Data Storage Innovation Centre in Middle East and Central Asia to Accelerate Business Innovation for Customers and Partners”, HUAWEI https://e.huawei.com/en/news/2024/solutions/storage/accelerate-businessinnovation#:~:text=%5BDubai%2C%20UAE%2C%20October%2016,communication%20with%20par tners%20and%20customers.
Joint Trilateral (2023 March 10) “Joint Trilateral Statement by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran”, Foreign Ministry of People’s Republic of China https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2675_665437/2878_663746/2879_663748/202303/t2023 0311_11039241.html
MFA (2025 March 7) “Wang Yi on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Will of the people must not be defied, and principle of justice must not be abandoned”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Peoples Republic of China https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202503/t20250307_11570217.html
MFA (2024 July 23) “Palestinian Faction Signs Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Peoples Republic of China https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202407/t20240723_11458790.html
Final Statement (2025 March 4) “Cairo Ectraordinary Arab Summit issues Final Statement” Jordan News Agency https://petra.gov.jo/Include/InnerPage.jsp?ID=69118&lang=en&name=en_news
NSPM-2 (2025 February 4) “National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-2” The White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/national-security-presidential-memorandumnspm-2/
Presidential Action (2025 January 20) “Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders ans Actions”, White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmfulexecutive-orders-and-actions/
Ravid, Barak (2025 March 5) “Exclussive: US holding Secret Talk with Hamas”, Axios https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/us-hamas-talks-gaza-war-israel
Roth, Andrew & Burke, Jason (2025 March 10) “US envoys secret talks with Hamas anger Netanyahu Administration”, The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/10/us-envoy-secrettalks-hamas-anger-netanyahu-administration
Schenker, David & al-Omari Ghaith (2025 February 19) “The Two Arab Summits Hold the Key to a Viable Gaz Plan”, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/two-arab-summits-hold-key-viable-gaza-plan
Statement (2025 February 5), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia https://x.com/KSAmofaEN/status/1886953044484473007/photo/1
ToI (2025 February 6) “Katz Orders IDF to prepare plan enabling Gazans to leave the Strip voluntarily”, Times of Israel (ToI) https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/katz-orders-idf-to-prepare-plan-enabling-gazans-toleave-gaza-voluntarily/
Wenting, Xie (2024 September 28) “China’s GDI, GSI and GCI foster global Cooperation, address urgent challenges” The Global Times https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1320506.shtml
