Thru’ the Desk of the Editor
Editorial: World Ahead 2026 – End of Politics, Opening up of Leadership
As this impactful year 2025 ends, there are certain things one needs to know about the shifting global order. In global politics, 2025 was the year when an old order ended. President Donald Trump demolished decades-old norms and institutions dramatically. His tariffs bludgeoned multilateral trade system. Long-standing security alliances were refashioned into transactional relationships that monetised American military and economic heft.
2026 is poised as year of geopolitical fragmentation, challenging traditional alliances, shifting power dynamics, demanding greater resilience from nations. Geopolitical landscapes face increased volatility, shaped by shifting US foreign policy, growing US-China Indo-Pacific tensions, evolving European security dynamics post-Ukraine war and continued instability in Middle East post-Gaza conflict, with potential flashpoints in Taiwan, Korean Peninsula and Africa, along with major elections in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Peru, Sweden and US – mid-terms, and global summits like APEC, and G20 in US, signalling a fragmented world order.
In 2026, beyond individual events, political fault lines will continue to shift with significant consequences for international trade and investments. The global economic environment is pivoting towards greater securitization, regional fragmentation and retreat from rule-based frameworks that defined much of post-war political and economic order.
The world of 2026 will be heavily shaped by efforts to restructure global economic and geopolitical order and how Washington’s allies, adversaries and rivals seek to mitigate those risks or take advantage of new opportunities. China’s economy will be much larger than America’s and India’s will be much larger than that of any individual European country. As these countries develop, so will their voracious appetite for natural resources and human capital. There will be global scramble for oil, water and skilled labour. China and India will become self-confident and will project their own ideas on concepts such as democracy and rule of law. If these trends are taken to their logical conclusions, 2026 will not see a new world order, but at least four. This quadripolar world would be split along two axes; between democracies and autocracies; and between countries seeking a balance of power and those that want a world organised around international law and institutions.
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, peaceful settlement remains far from reach. As long as Vladimir Putin continues his agenda to control not just Ukraine’s eastern regions but entire Ukraine, Trump’s negotiation with Putin is unlikely to resolve war in Ukraine. Ukraine must adapt its economy to a protracted war and strengthen its industrial capacity to produce more weapons and win technological race in drone interception and gains deep-strike capabilities from European allies. Russia continues to innovate. Its ballistic missiles are now better able to evade interceptors such as US-made Patriot system. Ukraine will need around $100 billion in military aid and financial support. NATO summit in Ankara in July 2026 could be crucial moment to shore up these commitments for Ukraine.
Middle East seems to be poised to dominate headlines. 2026 will test whether Middle East ceasefires can be foundation for meaningful diplomacy and sustainable peace agreements. US-brokered Gaza ceasefire in October offers rare moment of respite for Palestinians devastated by two years of war and famine. Donald Trump’s involvement in regional diplomacy applied much-needed pressure on both Israel and Hamas, yet uncertainty continues to overshadow a process that still lacks detailed framework, timeline and commitments from either side. Sustained international engagement and political follow-through from regional powers, including Gulf States will be essential to transforming this ceasefire into broader political and reconstruction process. Lebanon and Syria remain mired in institutional fragility, leaving both vulnerable to renewed conflict and further Israeli strikes. Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2026, could provide an opportunity to stabilize internationally backed technocratic government. But despite direct negotiation between Israel and Lebanon, unresolved questions over Hezbollah’s disarmament and Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon persist.
Syria has completed its first parliamentary elections and violence has eased following Suwayda attacks, but reconstruction efforts are lagging. President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to White House in November 2025 and lifting of US sanctions may herald new economic opportunities for Syria. Spectre of another Israel–Iran confrontation looms after 12-day war in June 2025. Fresh round of diplomacy with Tehran will be essential to preventing resumption of Iran’s nuclear programme. If Israel continues to focus on deterrence over diplomacy its isolation may deepen in 2026.
The trajectory of US–China relations should become clearer in 2026 as US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping plan reciprocal visits which will offer clearer direction of whether they will agree to a new modus vivendi, following trade-war truce agreed in October 2025. Although American political and security establishment believes US must prepare for decades of strategic competition with China, Trump sees Beijing as partner with which he can do business, even as he deploys tactical threats to secure short-term advantages. Regardless of how Trump approaches Beijing, Xi is convinced that Washington is trying to constrain China in long term. When Chinese Communist Party launches its 15th Five-Year Plan in March, Xi is expected to accelerate China’s push for technological and industrial self-reliance. The bumpy trajectory of US–China relations will affect rest of the world.
Bangladesh and Nepal are due to hold elections in first quarter of 2026, as they attempt to move on from their recent youth-led revolutions. New leaders of Japan and South Korea, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Lee Jae-myung, will try to manage political polarization and sluggish economic growth at home while balancing relations with US and China. Pakistan has begun to see some pseudo-economic stabilisation due to increased diplomatic ties with US over sanctions negotiations and energy development as well as continued relations with China through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Alongside security destabilisation stemming from tensions with India over insurgency and terrorism, political destabilisation prevails in Pakistan
Intensifying global competition, louder public demands for reform and protracted security challenges will shape Africa in 2026. Interest from European, Asian and Gulf countries is likely to grow as they scramble to secure cobalt, copper and other minerals needed for energy transition. Opportunities will arise to reshape industrial supply chains and strengthen Africa’s economy which continues to struggle with high youth unemployment, sluggish productivity and rising debt. Partnerships in ‘cobalt-copper belt’ are likely to expand in 2026, supported by greater investment in battery, refining and transport-corridor projects. In 2026, growth across Africa is expected to remain resilient, with East Africa approaching 6 per cent in select economies. West Africa will continue to diversify through industrial expansion and energy investment. Protracted conflicts, including war in Sudan, will continue to destabilize Africa. Gen Z-led protests across Kenya, Tanzania and Madagascar in 2024 and 2025 exposed growing dissatisfaction with entrenched elites, rigged elections and social inequalities
Big surprise for global economy in 2025 was that Donald Trump actually did what he promised in US election campaign. World economy has suffered less than many predicted from such measures as raising average US tariff rate to its highest level since 1930s. International Monetary Fund is forecasting growth of just over 3 per cent in 2026 and global equity markets recently touched all-time highs. This resilience is partly due to other countries choosing not to retaliate against US tariff hikes and continuing to trade with each other under World Trade Organization terms. Whether these forces will continue to counterbalance negative effects of Trump’s actions on US and global economies is a major question in 2026. One scenario would see sharp financial market correction, or even a crash.
New START, a nuclear arms treaty between Russia and US, is due to expire in February 2026, leaving countries without bilateral arms control for first time in more than 50 years. Can Russia and US find a way to extend treaty informally? Iran’s nuclear programme will remain another flashpoint, after US strikes in June 2025 failed to destroy its facilities. As Tehran inches towards weapons-grade uranium and diplomatic options narrow, risk of renewed conflict between Iran and US or its regional partners will grow in 2026. China is believed to be expanding its arsenal rapidly and is said to be on course to reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Though that would only be one-fifth size of Russia’s or US’s, Beijing is shifting the strategic balance. No talks with Moscow and Washington are on horizon, and each may use Beijing’s actions as pretext to acquire more weapons. President Trump’s announcement about resumption of testing American nuclear weapons heightens risk of escalation.
The danger is not that US will conduct test in 2026 but that such rhetoric could give Russia or China political cover to resume testing themselves. In April and May 2026, Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference meets to assess state of one of the most effective arms control agreements. Will it produce meaningful recommitment to non-proliferation norms?
International rule of law has been tested over 2025. Failure to address conflict in Gaza on same terms as West’s response to Ukraine has prompted many states in Global South to distance themselves from core human rights and humanitarian principles. Donald Trump has encouraged more unilateral approaches by extending his coercive tariff campaign, deploying military force against alleged drug traffickers in Venezuela. The question for 2026 is whether international system can show sufficient resilience in defending rule of law. Can international trade withstand rise of unilateralism and resist interference with free trade? Will West be able to persuade other states that humanitarian principles are universal concerns, rather than tools of intervention into domestic affairs of states? Can confidence be restored in prohibition of use of force by ending violence in Ukraine? Answers to these questions are important in 2026.
In 2025, Indian geopolitical landscape was defined by balancing major power relations - US, Russia, EU and China, navigating regional instability - Pakistan, Bangladesh and Maldives, pursuing key trade deals with US and EU, managing energy security amid global conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, and addressing economic pressures from Western tariffs, all while enhancing strategic partnerships in areas such as technology and cyber-security. Scourge of terrorism continued to visit India, as Pakistan remains global centre of terror. Pakistan-backed Pahalgam Massacre invoked massive response from India, hitting Pakistan hard in “Op Sindoor”. Pakistan Afghanistan relations hit a new low, as Pashtuns made Durand Line live with cross-border action. Bangladesh remains in civil-war state after ouster of Sheikh Hasina, as interim government tries to distance from India and makes overtures to China and Pakistan. US-India dynamics included dealing with potential US tariffs, “America First” policies, renewed US-Pakistan ties and efforts to secure significant trade deal for better market access. India-EU relations are a deepening “strategic partnership” focused on trade with FTA talks ongoing, EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC) cooperation, security, and digital transformation. India continues delicate balance of trade with China despite border tensions while managing energy ties and geopolitical pressures over relations with Russia. President Putin’s state visit to India on December 3-4, 2025 for 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit further strengthened Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia. Trade agreements with US, UK, EFTA, Qatar, New Zealand could boost investment.
India’s 8.2 per cent GDP growth in Q2 of 2025-2026 was very encouraging. The year was marked by global structural shifts, increased nationalism, trade protectionism, and cyber-security threats. As 2026 approaches, India is expected to continue balancing its interests and global power competition, seeking strategic autonomy, positioning itself as a major economic and strategic power in a turbulent world. Expectations for India in 2026 point towards continued strong economic growth, solid market performance driven by domestic demand and policy support and significant anticipation surrounding the Union Budget 2026, with focus on tax fairness, support for sunrise sectors, consumer-facing reforms in healthcare and insurance. India’s GDP is projected to grow between 6.5 and 7.4 per cent in 2026, reaching approximately $4.1 to $4.6 trillion in nominal terms, driven by strong domestic demand and robust liquidity. Focus areas include digital infrastructure, manufacturing incentives, and managing global economic uncertainties. Relations between India and China hold greater significance for Asia and global order. Together, two nations account for nearly 40 per cent of world’s population, with India currently fourth and soon to be third largest, yet China-India relations remain complex. Tensions over long-standing and unresolved territorial dispute play significant role, but beyond that lies broader geopolitical rivalry. Both view themselves as civilizational states and their rising prominence is creating new ways of competition. West increasingly sees India only as counterweight to China, with limited interest in India’s success.
2025 has proved to be one of toughest for India on diplomatic and economic front with policy makers striving to strike balance between rival powers on global stage while safeguarding India’s sovereignty, economic interests and sensitivities. The primary challenge was handling unpredictability of US President Donald Trump who assumed office for second term in January. India was singled out for its economic and diplomatic closeness to Russia, a historical ally currently engaged in Ukraine war.
In August 2025, Washington imposed steep 50 per cent import duties on most Indian goods This included 25 per cent penalty specifically for purchasing discounted Russian oil. With US exports totaling approximately $86.5 billion in FY25, nearly a fifth of India’s total, the move was omnious. But India did not blink. It chose to stick to tried and tested path of non-alignment and sovereignty and refused to stop its oil purchases from Russia while continuing to remain cordial and economically pragmatic with US. It stayed continuously engaged with US, trying to work out bilateral trade deal that would satisfy US, by providing market access for American industry and lead to roll back of steep duties on Indian goods. US wants market access for its genetically modified soya, corn and certain meat and dairy items that are highly sensitive in India. India is firm on its redlines but flexible in other areas. Indian exporters have shown resilience and guts by trying to continue to sell in US market to extent possible while looking for opportunities in other markets. Despite global upheaval, India’s overall goods exports have not dipped this fiscal. In April – November 2025 period, exports posited 2.6 increase to $292.1 billion and as efforts to diversify continue, FY26 would end on positive note. India is maximising opportunities in multiple markets, so as not to stay dependent on just a few. India remained neutral on Israel-deep Palestine war. By sticking to original stance of supporting two-state solution, India has managed to remain close to Israel while not alienating Islamic nations. It is evident in India-Oman FTA being ready for signing while FTA talks with Israel have been initiated. India is hoping to multiply its low exports with Russia, as Moscow is keen to use up its Vostro accounts for payment of oil. While India played a difficult hand astutely in 2025, 2026 promises further hurdles. US is yet to make up its mind on terms for tariff reduction. EU remains firm on its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and other regulatory hurdles. EFTA and UK FTA are yet to prove their worth. Bridging trade deficit with Russia may not be easy. China’s role is unclear. For India, 2026 will not be a year to rest but to stay sharp and alert, perhaps more than before.
The start of 2026 will see governments across the world, forced to respond swiftly to mounting economic, social, security, environmental and technological challenges. These issues come amid a turbulent geopolitical context – a disintegration of post-war international order. Global cooperation is at low point and conflict is escalating. Traditional institutions like WTO and UN have proved ineffective in delivering broad global consensus or serving as a platform to resolve disputes. Global security order is too fragmented to either maintain or negotiate peace.
Geopolitical world in 2026 will signal end of politics and opening up of leadership. Leaders will not only need to address specific challenges in 2026, but do so while finding agreement to build a global framework for promoting peace and prosperity in place of aggression and economic uncertainty we are now experiencing.
If past is prologue, year 2026 ahead will be filled with surprises – some good, some bad- that no one would have predicted. In 2026, old cliché will certainly hold true: expect the unexpected.
Articles in this edition of the Journal examine various dimensions of Diplomacy and Security related issues. All authors have presented their views on topics ranging from White Collar Terrorism to India’s Critical Infrastructure Programme to China’s coercive activities around Taiwan, with well-planned research on the topics with deep thought process. Their views will surely help in instilling the subjects and topics under discussion in the minds of the readers.
