Abstract
In the age of globalisation, the nature of warfare is changing from conventional to chemical, Biological, and Nuclear warfare which are way too dangerous than that of conventional warfare. Even though there are some international restrictions on the development and proliferation of biowarfare agents under ‘Biological Weapons Convention’, 1972 which was entered into force in 1975, still some countries are having their clandestine bioagents development programmes. If the bioterror attack happens, where does India stand in this biological arms race? There is an absolute risk to the health of humankind as these Bioweapons have the potential for mass destruction of not only people but also the animals. It is wrong to assume states and terrorists lack the will or the means to build biological weapons. This article goes deep in understanding the historical events of bioterror attacks, current preparedness and current strategies to mitigate the risk, and also future challenges that could evolve in upcoming years.
Key Words: Bioweapons, Bioterrorism, Viruses, Bacterias, Toxins, biowarfare
Introduction
Biological warfare is defined as the use of bacterias, viruses, zoonotic toxins and other agents to cause illness or death in people, animals, or plants. Similarly, the term Bioterrorism is the use of the same microorganisms or toxins by the extremists or terrorist groups to produce weapons. The use of Bioweapons is not the new concept, it dates back to the 14th century, when cadavers were dropped into the wells of the drinking water. The potential impact of bioterrorism depends on the agent used, the amount being disseminated, the dispersal method, the weather conditions, the preexisting immunity of the exposed or targeted population and how quickly the attack was identified.
In the days of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and advanced biotechnology where gene editing has become a super easier way to modify microorganisms, this synthetic biology has the potential to destabilize the world. Most of the sources of bioweapon come from zoonoses but plenty come from scientific advances. Molecular and human biology is allowing for the development of remarkably deadly and effective pathogens (the microorganism causes disease). Bioengineering can make viruses more deadly with their gene having capability to survive in any condition.
In 2020, AI researchers created “Alpha Fold” which effectively solved a Holy Grail problem, predicting the 3D structure of protein from the sequence of amino acids. (Brent et al., 2024)
Generating pathogens is cheaper than defending against them. AI in molecular biology and genetics can encourage bioterrorism and would ease the path for them.
The main objective of this paper is to review the historical perspective, current scenario of the development of bioweapons with the use of AI, risks, current preparedness and mitigation strategies to be done to prevent and reduce morbidity and mortality arising from bioterrorists actions.
Historical Context and Perspective
Biological warfare or Bioterrorism is not a new concept. Bioterrorism dates back to the 14th century when cadavers were dropped into drinking water wells to poison it.
1. In French and Indian wars, Native Americans were given Smallpox (Variola MajorSmallpox agent) laden blankets which initiated smallpox in previously unexposed populations. This resulted in a 40% mortality rate. (Pal et al., n.d.) Smallpox became a less effective biological weapon with the advent of a vaccine in 1796 by Edward Jenner, who demonstrated that inoculation with cowpox protected against smallpox infection.3 Yet there are accounts during the Civil War of the future governor of Kentucky, Dr. Luke Blackburn, selling smallpox contaminated clothing to Union officers. (Smith, 2002)
2. In 1984, 751 people suffered food poisoning in The Dalles, Oregon, United States, due to the deliberate contamination of salad bars at ten local restaurants with Salmonella. It was the Rajneeshee Bioterror attack
3. In 2001, Anthrax laden letters were mailed to media organisations and politicians in the US, Killing five and infecting Seventeen people. The attacks contaminated 21 USPS facilities. Two postal workers who handled mail at an office where a contaminated letter was sorted are suspected to have died from the disease. The attacks were the first intentional exposure to anthrax in the United States and demonstrated that biological terrorism was a reality. (Wikipedia Contributors, 2019)
4. In the 14th century, Europe was shaken by a horrific pandemic called ‘Black Death’ due to the spread of Bubonic Plague (Yersinia pestis). Resulted in killing 20-25 million people. The disease arrived in Europe by Italian trading ships from crimea. Black death is characterized by blackened tissues called gangrene. The Black Death also struck Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, China, and India. The Black Death was the first wave of a series of plague pandemics that lasted until the 1900s.
5. In 1973-74, the then USSR formed an organisation called Chief Directorate for Biological Preparation (Biopreparat), with the purpose of developing Bioweapons (BW). Biopreparat conducted offensive biological weapons research and maintained five manufacturing plants that produced dual-use products. In 1985, Biopreparat expanded and became more politically important. It also became involved in the civil biopharmaceutical sector. In the 2000s, Biopreparat's role diminished as it lost control of most of its R&D institutes and manufacturing facilities. It now focuses on export control and has a small headquarters staff.
6. In 1974, Iraq started a Research and Development Programme on Biological Warfare, contextualising it in an organisation called ‘The State for Trade and Industry.’(Pal et al., n.d.). It consisted of Botulinum toxin, Anthrax, Aflatoxin and Ricin, as well as anti-plants and viral agents such as rotavirus, infectious hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and camel pox. The programme involved about 300 scientists from Europe.(Pal et al., n.d.)
7. Also in World War 1, Germany used the bacterial weapons on animals of enemies which they used for transport. This move also sickened the horses and mules in France and Romania. German officers even managed to infect corrals and stables in the United States.
8. In World War II, in Japanese occupied Manchuria, Japanese military officer Lt gen Shiro Ishi with his military Unit 731 and lesser-known Unit 100, conducted inhumane experiments with bioweapons on humans, i.e. on Prisoners of War, infected and killed thousands of them with Anthrax, Typhoid, Paratyphoid, Glanders, Dysentery and Bubonic Plague. Understanding the legacy of Unit 731 is essential in comprehending the depths of human depravity in the pursuit of biological warfare. (Bhushan, 2024 p. 148)
After the end of WW-I, Geneva protocol was signed and the 1st Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was put on the table in 1925, at that time, it is mentioned in some books that biological arms race was happening then also. Winston Churchill has clearly mentioned in one of his books that Anthrax can be used against men and the horses.
Current Arms Race and Scenario
A starting point for assessing the current threat of biological weapons (BW) is the unclassified arms control compliance report prepared periodically by the U.S. State Department, most recently in July 2010, although it does not cover all countries of proliferation concern. The section of the report addressing compliance with the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) suggests that Iran, North Korea, and Syria (a signatory state) may have active BW programmes and that China and Russia have been less than forthcoming about their past offensive activities. (Tucker, 2012)
It seems that, Biological weapons convention is left just in name only and there are no checks and balances to see whether any country is involved in the development of bioweapons. The process of thinking seemed to have started when the world had been through the horror of Covid19 pandemic.
In the age of Artificial Intelligence, it has become very easy to modify and engineer a small microorganism to adapt to any kind of situation like, high temperature, high pressure and also increases their antimicrobial resistance. A huge relation can be established between cyber security and biosecurity. Malevolent actors simply could create a deadly new pathogen by hijacking such automated facilities.
For example, in 2020, AI researchers created ‘Alpha Fold’ effectively solved a holy grail problem by predicting a 3D structure of protein from the sequence of amino acids. Hackers have proven capable of breaking into exceeding complex security systems. Surprisingly, pacemakers can have remote access and any expert can hack it and assassinate a person carrying a pacemaker.
In April 2024, the United States Department assessed that North Korea and Russia have offensive biological weapons programs, Also, China and Iran are pursuing biological activities that could be weaponized and ALL are the parties to Biological Weapons Convention.
This uncertainty stems from the fact that monitoring clandestine BW programmes is a challenging task for several reasons. First, BW development and production capabilities can be concealed at ostensibly legitimate industrial sites, such as vaccine plants or facilities for the production of single-cell protein or biopesticide. Second, the equipment and know-how needed for the manufacture of BW agents is entirely dual-use, although technologies for weaponization and delivery are more specialized. Third, because only tens of kilograms of an agent such as dried anthrax spores can be militarily significant, even small-scale production facilities are relevant from a security standpoint. Fourth, proliferant states often use deception and denial techniques to conceal their BW-related activities, as was demonstrated by the cat-and-mouse game played by Iraq and United Nations biological weapons inspectors after the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Finally, since the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent mailing of letters contaminated with anthrax bacterial spores, the biodefense programmes of several countries have expanded dramatically, providing a potential cover for offensive BW development.(Tucker, 2012)
Threat and Risks of Bioweapons to Human Health as well as Animals
Bioweapons are categorised into three subtypes as,
Category A: The mode of transmission of microorganisms is from animals to humans (Except smallpox). It can also transmit from person to person. The rate of mortality is very high in this case. And this category agents or pathogens have the highest potential for mass public health impact.
Category B: These pathogens are easy to disseminate and result in moderate morbidity or low morbidity rates.
Category C: These are emerging pathogens that could be genetically engineered for mass dissemination and mass destruction of public health.
Bioweapons are Extremely toxic, highly infectious, preferably communicable among humans, stable in storage and even in dispersal, it creates difficulty in medical response, they are easy to grow in laboratory and produce manipulable effects
They cause hazard to human or animal health in various ways such as infectivity i.e. the aptitude of an agent to penetrate and multiply in the host, Pathogenicity i.e. the ability of agent to cause a disease after penetrating into the body, Transmissibility i.e. the ability of the agent to be transmitted from an infected individual to a healthy one, and Ability to neutralize i.e. to have preventive tools and therapeutic purposes.
There are various routes of exposure to bioweapons such as Parental route i.e. agents are transmitted through body fluids or blood, Airway(droplet) i.e. agents that are emitted by infected individuals, Through Contact i.e. agents are presented on any surface such as Corona virus was from one of such categories and lastly through oral-fecal route i.e. objects and food contaminated with feces of infected patients or through sexual contact. The most vulnerable route is a respiratory route as the susceptibility of a mucous membrane (Moist inner lining of some body organs) in our lungs.
80% of bioweapons are zoonotic, and it also infects not only humans but also themselves. Therefore, animals are the indicators of bioterror attack. Increased numbers of sick and dead animals indicate that all are infected with the same agent and it may risk human life. It can provide early warning to humans. Animals involved in local/international pet trade could play a role in the maintenance and spread of an epidemic attributable to an intentional release of biological agents.
General protection and prevention against Bioweapons
1. Population should be educated and made aware of biological threats.
2. Maintenance of clinical hygiene of patients in hospital as well as at home
3. Clinical isolation of a suspected human
4. A network of specialised laboratories should be established.
5. Vector control measures
6. Mass immunisation programmes should be conducted
7. Pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis, therapeutics and protective clothing should be provided
8. Mass vaccination programmes should be conducted
9. Government hospitals should be given better equipments to respond to the epidemic
10. Development of warning systems
11. Surge the production of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) kits
12. Should cut the amount of time required to develop and distribute vaccines and antiviral drugs.
Conclusion
The advanced technology and Artificial intelligence can negatively stand as a bonus point for bioterrorism and biological warfare. Unlike the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, no biological attacks have been world historical events that attract enduring attention. AI models need additional safeguards against handling out dangerous information.
Apart from other preventive measures, the role of veterinarians in combating bioterrorists attack seems to be very essential. Fields of veterinary and human medicine overlap in many areas. Veterinarians are the front-line educators regarding zoonotic diseases. Therefore, integrating veterinary and human public health surveillance efforts are significant in dealing with bioterrorism. There is a greater need for coordinated and cohesive efforts by scientists and researchers to do more in this field. We need to increase our biodefense capabilities, ensure sufficient protection from emerging threats, and provide emergency health insurance coverage during bioterror attacks. For all their upsides, AI and bioengineering carry immense perils.
References
Bhushan, M. (2024). Silent Weapons Deadly Secrets (first, p. 148). Pathak Publishers and Distributors. (Original work published 2024)
Brent, R., T. Greg McKelvey, Jr, & Matheny, J. (2024, August 20). The New Bioweapons. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/new-bioweapons-covid-biology
Pal, M., Tsegaye, M., Godishala, V., & Girzaw, F. (n.d.). An Overview on Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism. Https://Www.researchgate.net/Publication/316189350_An_Overview_on_Biological_Weapons_and_B ioterrorism; American Journal of Biomedical Research.
Smith, S. (2002). Old Tactics, New Threat: What Is Today’s Risk of Smallpox? AMA Journal of Ethics, 4(9). https://doi.org/10.1001/virtualmentor.2002.4.9.mhst1-0209.
Tucker, J. B. (2012). The Current Bioweapons Threat. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology, 7–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5273-3_2 Wikipedia Contributors. (2019, December 17). 2001 anthrax attacks. Wikipedia; Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks
